Jisub Shin

Place-based university admission policies can reduce regional educational disparities, but they may also reshape households' residence, education investment, and fertility decisions. This paper examines how shifting admission competition from the national to the regional level affects fertility and regional inequality. Using administrative migration data from South Korea, I document how families' residential choices are associated with regional educational opportunities. To evaluate this counterfactual reform, I develop a quantitative spatial overlapping-generations model calibrated to South Korea in which households jointly choose residence, fertility, and private education investment. The reform alters incentives for private education investment across regions. As admission competition intensifies in urban areas, households spend more on education per child and reduce fertility, while rural households respond in the opposite direction as competition eases. Migration toward rural areas partially offsets the aggregate fertility decline. Overall, the model predicts a 6.1 percent decline in fertility and a 44 percent reduction in the urban–rural human-capital gap. These findings highlight a trade-off between reducing regional disparities and sustaining aggregate fertility, particularly relevant for economies already facing low fertility.